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Election Analysis
2012
unknownj
This is not my main update. This is merely my take on the election. For reasons which will become clear later, I watched the coverage from about midnight until 9am, when the buggers stopped showing it. These are my thoughts...

Well, when I joined, it looked pretty exciting, I have to say. Lots of states up for grabs, California not yet taken (the largest state in terms of electoral points - it's worth 54). I was pretty confident of a Gore victory, since I figured no sane individual would vote for Bush. How wrong was I, eh? Oh well...

Anyhow, it started getting really exciting when Gore took California. As I said, since it has a very high population, it's worth more points than any other state, and as such, it put both candidates about level. At around the 220 point mark (remembering that 270 is required to be the president), it was getting tense. Nevada went to Bush, as did Alaska, Washington went to Gore, and at some point so did Iowa (although they didn't say much about that one). It got to the stage where both candidates were about 20 points from victory, with just three states left - Florida, Oregon and Wisconsin. Oregon and Wisconsin between them were worth, I believe, 18 points - not enough for a victory. Both candidates needed Florida....

Earlier that evening, on the basis of exit polls and a few early counts, it looked to the news networks as if Gore had won. So they told everybody that Gore had taken Florida. Didn't matter that only about 20% of the votes had been counted or anything. Well they were damned wrong, and had to backtrack seriously there - turned out Bush was leading by a margin of 200,000 voters. However, this was at about 60%, and so there was still time for Gore to catch up. As new precincts' votes were counted, Gore drew nearer and nearer to Bush, since the later precincts were mostly democrat ones. He drew to within 100k, then 50k, then 30k, then 20k, then the news reported that the spread was back to 50k, and that Bush had won because it was impossible for Gore to come back.

Note: in the state of Florida, 1.2m requests for postal vote slips were made. The rules state that if a postal vote has a postmark of the 7th of November or earlier, then it is valid, regardless of when it arrives. As such, there are likely to be many more votes arriving over the next few days, so you can't write off a mere 50k deficit as a loss of the state. I don't know where the news people came up with that, but they're damned wrong.

Anyway, last I heard, the spread was either 569 votes, or in the region of 1200, depending on which Florida state official you speak to. Either way, postal votes alone could easily tip that, along with counting errors, or indeed late precincts that hadn't been counted (it was only at 96% complete when I finished watching). As such, you simply cannot call that a victory for Bush. The problem is, some idiot comes out with something stupid, like "Bush has won". The news shows all suddenly want to be the first to broadcast this new information, and so do without thinking first. This is why the whole thing is messed up. Freaking idiots...

Anyway, I still don't know how Wisconsin or Oregon went, but the important thing is that there's to be a recount in Florida. In these circumstances, in any precinct with less than 5% separating the two candidates, the ballots are recounted - three times. Once by a representative of the republicans, once by a representative of the democrats, and once by a representative of the state of Florida. Then, and only then, will we know who has won. And since it's worth 25 points, I'm guessing Florida has a sufficiently large population that this won't be a quick job. If only it were Wyoming or somewhere - hardly any people there, reflected by the state being only worth 3 points.

Interestingly, Bush won many more states than Gore. This is particularly interesting, since they were so close together - Gore won just as many people, but they were all in large states which were worth more points, but there are fewer such states than tiny ones like the Carolinas (which are, I believe, worth a pittance).

Um, anyway, I'm still watching developments with great interest. CNN (bloody AOL, as I recall) reported that Gore had called Bush and conceded defeat, only to retract that when the country realised that perhaps letting the media decide who wins an election is a bad idea. Yeesh... Anyhow, that's about it on the subject of the election. Back to normal coverage of my life instead :o)

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Thanks to our political editor, James. More from him later. Now over to the blond bint for the weather.....

Being that I'm actually here in the midst of all of this, I thought that it'd be nice to update ya'll if you haven't seen it on your news already about what's happeneing here.....

"Anyway, I still don't know how Wisconsin or Oregon went"

Lemme enlighten ya *grin* OR... as of now - I have no clue - it's still undecided - much LIke FL - there hasnt been much on the news about it doing a recount but I do beleive somwehre that that's wahts taking place... there's not much at stake so people don't really care.. OR only ahs 7 electoral college votes (if anyones confused about how the # of votes are determined or how they vote just ask) anyways - and Gore has 260.... 270 are needed to win so WITH oregorn he's still 3 short... FL is the state that will determine who wins.. with FL Bush has 271... enough to win. Now.. about hte Carolinas.... I live in NC.. we have 14 electoral college votes, i'm not sure how many SC has but i'm betting it's close.. Bush got the southern statesbecuase GOre is very anti-tobacco.. but Gore got the big states (CA, NY, IL.. the like) yet Bush got TX (duh... he's their governor) Although Gore's from TN..... TN went to Bush... once again beaucse Gore is so anti-tobacco and TN is a big tobacco state. FL has until Thursday at 5pm (close of buisness day) to recount all of the votes... so we shall know from then.. although i've heard that Gore's gonna demand a recount of every close state and yadda yadda yadda.. be a big baby about it. Both suck but that's ok! Anyways - that's what I know - once again if you need to know anything ask.. and CNN always has good coverage on the web as well as TV.... so check there if you want up to date info (such as the current recount of FL's votes)

Later
Katie

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